According to her, Romania could join the Euro Zone in 2019 if it meets the necessary criteria and it enters the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM-II) by 2017.
S&P's scenario includes no benefit resulting from the Euro Zone membership. Therefore, a delay in the euro adoption calendar would have no impact upon Romania's ratings.
Sakhuja adds that Romania is more vulnerable to a slowdown of the economy in the European Union, an important destination for the Romanian exports, than to the events in Greece.
Since 2014, Romania benefits from the 'BBB minus/A-3,' rating, for the long—and short-term debt in foreign and local currency, from the said agency, says Aarti Sakhuja.
In the S&P analyst's opinion, the stable outlook balances the risks generated by the recent changes of the Tax Code to the public finances' consolidation, with a perspective of relatively robust growth for Romania.
The modifications proposed to the Tax Code, if enforced, would determine the review of forecasts referring to the general public finances' strengthening, adds Sakhuja. Notwithstanding, we should consider any compensation measures in order to fully quantify the impact to the public deficit, she underlined.
We believe that Romania should prove ability in implementing the structural and fiscal reforms, in the absence of a reduced monetary flexibility, Sakhuja says.
For instance, the recent modifications to the Tax Code could lead to an increase of the fiscal deficit by smaller collection if no compensation measures are taken, the S&P analyst concluded. (source: actmedia.eu)