Despite pessimistic estimates (the latest coming from COFACE Romania), the results announced last week by the National Statistics Institute (INS) offer the hope that the year that passed will see an economic growth of approximately 3 per cent for Romania. For the time being the calculus shows that we are close to this figure.
Even if it does not surpass a GDP growth of 3 per cent, Romania already proves that it has a stable economy with vigorous growth in the last three years. A period in which it did not resort to the financial support of international financial assistance bodies, nor to the rigors they imposed on us in line with an outdated “theory” of economic liberalism. In this context, we find more than interesting the statements made by a foreign banker about Romania’s economy the other days: “If we look at Romania’s good macroeconomic situation, it does not fundamentally need an agreement with the IMF. I believe Romania has room for maneuver in order to re-finance itself – it has a low budget deficit, small debt as a percentage of GDP, it has a balance of payments with a slight deficit, almost balanced. The talks are not over, and even if a new agreement were not to be reached I don’t believe it would be something dramatic, I’m not concerned at all.” This is the opinion expressed by Philippe Lotte, CEO of BRD-GSG.
The Romanian economy’s engines in 2014 were the growth of internal consumption, as a result of the government’s favorable policies (the lowering of VAT for breadstuffs, raising incomes, returning some salary rights etc.), industry, with a growth of over 6 per cent, and the export dynamic that placed us on the top position in the European Union in the last four years according to the Export Council (a public-private body).
Romania’s GDP advanced 2.9 percent in real terms in 2014; the 4th quarter figure was 0.5 percent higher than in Q3, according to the preliminary forecast released on Friday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). The year-on-year evolution in Q4 2014 was 2.6 per cent up in the unadjusted series and 2.5 per cent up in the seasonally adjusted series.
The Q1 2014 data was revised down from 100.8 percent to 100.3 percent of the Q4 2013; the Q2 to Q1 2014 estimate was unchanged; Q3 to Q1 2014 estimate was revised up from 101.8 percent to 102.2 percent.
Romania’s state budget for 2015 is based on a GDP growth of 2.5 per cent, which the INS estimated at RON 709,681 M. The International Monetary Fund forecast is 2.7 percent growth.
Romania’s economy had an annual growth rate of 2.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to preliminary data released on Friday by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
According to Eurostat, the GDP advanced 1.3 per cent year-on-year in Q4 2014 in the whole European Union, and 0.9 per cent in the Eurozone.
Eurostat data are similar to the ones announced by Romania’s National Institute of Statistics – a 2.5 per cent year-on-year advance of the country’s GDP in Q4 (0.5 percent up on a Q3 basis). (source: nineoclock.ro)