The overall average price rises in the last 12 months (Sept. 2012 – Aug. 2013) as compared to the prior 12 months (Sept. 2011 – Aug. 2012) calculated on the consumer price index stands at 5.1 per cent, while the one calculated on the harmonized consumer price index is of 4.4 per cent, Agerpres reports. The foodstuff prices were by 0.8 per cent lower in August as compared to July, while the non-foodstuffs and services tariffs were higher by 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively, the Institute said.

The most significant decreases in food prices were reported for fresh fruit (12.3 percent) and potatoes (8.1 percent). In July, consumer prices dropped by 0.34 percent compared to the previous month and the annual inflation rate was 4.41 percent.

The average monthly inflation rate in the eight months of this year was 0.2 per cent as compared to 0.3 per cent in the same period a year ago. Economists at ING Bank predict a 2.7 percent inflation at the end of the year and expect consumer prices to increase with on average by approximately 2 percent in the first half of next year. The disinflation reported in August was determined once again by food prices, which have experienced a smaller annual increase (from 3.9 percent to 2.4 percent) adjusted by vegetable prices (which have reported a negative increase from plus 9.9 percent in the previous month to minus 1.4 percent) and, to a smaller extent, by fruit prices (which have experienced a decrease from 5.9 percent to 3.6 percent).

The National Bank of Romania modified the year-end inflation projection downwards to 3.1 percent, the same as for the end of next year. The Central Bank had previously forecast 3.2 per cent inflation rate at end-2013. The year-end inflation target is 2.5 per cent plus or minus one percentage point.

It is expected that vegetable and fruit prices will continue to drop by 10 percent and 1.5 percent respectively in September, as a result of this year’s rich harvest, ING Bank Romania analysis estimate, according to money.ro.

 

The bank’s economists maintain that the short term outlook depends on the bread price dynamic for September, when the value added tax for bread and baked goods will be cut back from 24 percent to 9 percent and considering the fact that bread represents 6.7 percent of the consumption basket. (source: nineoclock.ro)